Sea Level Rise

The possible impacts of global warming are still being debated by scientists. However, it is widely accepted that sea levels are rising and will continue to do so in the future due to the thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of Polar ice caps.

This is compounded by the fact that the UK is naturally ‘tipping’ into the sea, with south eastern England sinking as western Scotland rises out of the sea.

Scientists predict that by the 2080s the average sea level in the English Channel will stand 54 cm higher than present.

There are a large number of uncertainties such as volume of greenhouse gases emissions, rate of ice melt and accuracy of climatologists computer models which give us a range of scenarios for the future. However even the low emission scenario predicts a rise of 19cm by 2080 for South England and taking into account other changes such as more violent and more frequent storms, the effects on the coastline could be disastrous.

Doing nothing is an option, but is it responsible to sit back and wait for problems to occur and then react? Whether we like it or not, climate change is now accepted to be an over-arching issue which will have an impact on the whole of the south east of England. Some of the predictions and their likely impacts may be uncertain, but a sensible analysis of the risks suggests that a responsible way forward is to plan now how we can adapt to the changes that may occur in the future.

In the long term it is unlikely in many areas that we will be able to maintain the coast in the same position as it is today, as this would cost the nation millions of pounds each year and we would need ever-increasing sea walls to cope with sea level rise and bigger waves.

The cost is both financial (through materials, labour and planning) and environmental (through construction damage, changing coastal processes and sourcing of materials). However, these costs have to be weighed up against the cost of losing farmland, houses, roads and businesses. We therefore need to think realistically about what our coastline is going to look like in the future, whether there are more sustainable solutions and how we can plan for these changes.

The Foresight Project, which was commissioned by the Government to consider the future impacts of flooding, recently reported that:

“continuing with existing policies is not an option … hard choices need to be taken – we must either invest more in sustainable approaches to flood and coastal management or learn to live with increased flooding.”

In Devon there are strong fears about sea level rises swamping the existing main railway route to the South West along the Dawlish seafront.

Already trains care sometimes cancelled or delayed during heavy storms as waves break over the line. Long-term concerns about the line mean that the inland route, closed in the 1960s, may have to be reopened. A report for train operators says it could happen within the next 50 years.

At Slapton Ley the road that links the community to the rest of the coastal stretch between Dartmouth and Torcross can only be maintained for a maximum of 30 – 50 years and possibly less if storms become more violent. Slapton Ley Partnership.

For further information and links please visit the UK Climate Change Partnership